Risk modeling firm Moody’s RMS has released an estimate of insurance market losses following recent European windstorm Ciarán, saying it expects sector losses to be between $900 million. ‘euros and 1.5 billion euros (approximately 1 to 1.6 billion US dollars).
Moody’s RMS estimate compares to the only other official estimate to have been published thus far, which was Verisk’s Extreme Events Solutions team, which estimated the loss to the insurance industry caused by Storm Ciarán at between €800 million and €1.3 billion..
As always, there are differences in methodology, models and what is included in the figures above, making comparisons difficult.
In agreement with Verisk, Moody’s RMS said France was responsible for the majority of losses caused by Storm Ciarán, while it also affected Belgium, the United Kingdom, the Channel Islands, the Netherlands and Germany between November 1 and 2, 2023.
Moody’s RMS stated that The estimate is based on wind risk reconstructions using its European Wind Storm Model and includes insured damage to property, automobiles, agriculture and direct business losses, but excludes infrastructure losses, which are not expected to be significant.
Loss estimates also take into account minor impacts from unmodeled loss sources such as coastal and inland flooding, as well as damage to forests, ports and watercraft, Moody’s RMS said.
Positively, Moody’s RMS also noted that the amplification of post-event losses due to material and labor shortages is expected to be minor, although inflationary trends remain the focus of attention in most countries. most affected by the storm.
The risk modeler also noted that any losses resulting from another recent European crisisThe Domingos storms, which affected west-central France in the days after Ciarán, are not included in its estimate of losses in the insurance market.
Giovanni Leoncini, senior product manager for European wind storm models at Moody’s RMS, commented: “Storm Ciaràn can be seen as a weaker sister to 87J, the great storm of 1987, which severely affected the United Kingdom and north-west France in October 1987.
“Even with lower burst speeds and a more limited range compared to the 87J, losses will remain significant for France. Despite the recent period of windstorms, the destruction caused by Ciaràn reminds us of the importance of extratropical cyclones for the (re)insurance sector.”