Bitcoin exceeded $36,000 and is currently targeting $37,000 while Bloomberg Analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have revived hopes that a Spot Bitcoin ETF could be approved this year. Analysts maintain their belief that there is a 90% chance that one of these funds be approved by January 2024.
Approval order ‘could’ happen in November
In an article shared on his X platform (formerly Twitter), Seyffart highlighted a new research note that him and Balchunas had just worked. From their research, they noted that there is a “brief window” that allows the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve all 12 Spot Bitcoin ETF applications at once.
This brief window (which opens on November 9) will last at least eight days, before which it is almost possible for the SEC to approve all applications at once until next year. The reason for their assertion is that the SEC cannot approve an application that is in the comment phase. It turns out that the comment phase of the latest requests that the SEC delayed ends on November 8, which is why they highlighted the window that starts on November 9.
As for why the window will only last about eight days, the SEC should decide Hashdex And Franklin’s candidacy on November 17, which could place both candidates in the comment phase. Indeed, it is expected that the SEC will choose to delay its decisions on these funds and seek feedback on them from the general public.
Meanwhile, analysts noted that this window only applies to the SEC approving all 12 applications at once. They explain that “theoretically”, the Commission could decide on the other applications by January 10, 2024, even if it chooses to delay its decision on the Hashdex and Franklin application until November 17. Whatever happens, they always believe that there is a 90% chance that one of these funds be approved by January 10 of next year.
One-time launch of a Bitcoin ETF is not that simple
When asked how long it would take for these funds to be launched after approval, Balchunas mentioned in a Message that he had guessed that the “19b-4” applications would be approved in “the not-so-distant future.” It will then take some time for the SEC to approve the “S-1” after which, “it would probably be a few days before launch.”
Seyffart also echoed similar sentiments when he declared that there are “two paths” to take before launching an ETF. One of these is the 19b-4 approval, after which the SEC’s Corporation Finance division will still need to approve. on the S-1. However, there is no indication that this has yet been done. As such, it could take “weeks or even months” from approval to launch.
Regardless of this, Bitcoin has understood the possibility that Spotting Bitcoin ETFs could be approved this month and has ridden this wave to reach over $36,000. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at around $36,700, up more than 4% in the past 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
BTC price above $36,600 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Featured image from The Economic Times, chart from Tradingview.com